The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States will have significant repercussions on the technology sector.
It’s always risky to make predictions, and this is especially true when the main character involved is someone prone to making surprising, rash, and often erratic decisions, and who has a habit of being easily influenced by anyone who has them. attentive ear. moment.
But Trump has expressed his views on a variety of important technology topics, and it’s also reasonable to consider the views and motivations of his top advisors, including Elon Musk, who has emerged over the past few months of presidential campaign as one of Trump’s most important advisers. important and trusted allies. So here’s a brief overview of what Trump 2.0 probably resources for issues such as AI, antitrust and semiconductors.
Antitrust
In addition to Trump’s almost certain deregulation of cryptocurrencies, the cryptocurrency markets are furious. celebrating his victory— the most likely thing to happen in January would be the removal of Lina Khan as head of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which enforces U.S. antitrust laws.
Khan, a Biden appointee, brought a radical interpretation of antitrust to the agency: She essentially updated its traditional focus on artificially high prices as the primary indicator of consumer harm in an era when people use free many technology services and providers. of these services can accumulate and abuse inordinate power in other ways. Khan made a name for himself with an attacking student article Amazonand was an unusually aggressive enforcer. Big Tech and other megacorporations hate her, and Elon Musk has called for her to be fired. (Khan’s term as FTC chairman officially ended on September 26, but committee chairs can continue to serve until the president appoints a Senate-confirmed replacement.)
So while new Vice Chairman JD Vance is a fan, Khan will likely leave and the FTC will change again — but it’s not yet clear how much that will temper the agency’s aggressiveness.
Some of his most important current cases, including a Meta case which could theoretically lead to the cancellation of its purchases on Instagram and WhatsApp, were initiated during the first Trump administration. Trump called this year Facebook “an enemy of the people,” even though CEO Mark Zuckerberg subsequently went out of his way to appear neutral in the election.
Trump’s First FTC Also Sued Google on its research monopoly, which this year led to a historic decision against the company. The Biden Justice Department is plans to push for a breakup of Google as a result, and the second Trump administration may well continue on this path. Trump recently called Google “rigged,” but he didn’t say whether he would pursue a breakup.
The FTC also recently obtained the right to conduct a antitrust lawsuit against Amazon for “removed competition and higher prices for buyers and sellers”. Amazon and Trump famously tangled during his first administration, but president and founder Jeff Bezos recently stopped his Washington Post to support Kamala Harris, in a move widely seen as an attempt to appease Trump.
AI
Khan’s FTC has also investigated the biggest players in AI, such as Microsoft, OpenAI and NVIDIA– to see if their whirlwind trading violated antitrust laws. These efforts are unlikely to continue with Trump’s return.
Trump is not a fan of regulating AI companies, and the same can be said for backers like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Trump’s campaign platform included a pledge to repeal Biden’s 2023 agenda. decree on AIwhich constituted a first step towards regulation against the multiple risks linked to AI – according to Trump, these were “radical left-wing ideas”.
“I fear that (Trump’s return) will lead to further deregulation of the technology sector, which would have a negative impact on human rights around the world,” said Oxford professor Sandra Wachter. Internet Institute, a leading figure in the study of technology and regulation.
“I am concerned about dangerous, inaccurate, biased and opaque AI used in recruiting, school admissions, loan decisions and health care,” she said. “I am concerned about the rapid spread of misinformation, hate speech and toxic content on the internet. I fear that AI will replace and displace many jobs and workers. The impact on climate change cannot be overestimated either, as the development of AI costs an unimaginable number of resources.”
In the field of AI – as well as electric vehicles, spaceflight and biotechnology – Elon Musk is likely to prove influential. Trump intends to put Musk in charge of reorganizing the U.S. government, which could provide opportunities for Musk’s xAI and his other companies. (Tesla’s stock price jumped more than 10% in response to the election result, despite the prospect of Musk being even more scattered than he already is.) Also meta this week announced a great effort getting the US military and other government agencies to use its Llama AI models; the future of this surge is now uncertain.
The ongoing feud between Musk and OpenAI may also now put that company at a disadvantage, although Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is the brother of Josh Kushner, whose Thrive Capital is a major and longtime investor in OpenAI. (Jared sold his stake in Thrive during the first Trump administration, in which he played a role.) Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, also made enthusiastic comments on the view of former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, who warned of security flaws at OpenAI and other major AI labs, which believes that artificial general intelligence (AGI, a theoretical AI superintelligence) will emerge in the coming years, and who called for a Manhattan Project-style U.S. effort to develop AGI before China.
By taking a broader geopolitical view, Trump’s isolationist tendencies could give China more room to exert its own influence around the world – perhaps promoting Chinese AI in the process.
China and chips
How Trump handles China will also determine the near-term future of the chip industry, with implications for everything from AI to automobiles.
Although Biden and Democrats have also been tough on China, limiting the export of the most powerful AI chips to the country and I’m trying to kill Because of China’s ability to manufacture its own advanced chips using Western technology, Trump may well start a full-scale trade war with China. This would clearly have an impact Apple and other big tech companies that rely heavily on Chinese production, and it would also prove problematic for Taiwan, the chipmaking powerhouse that relies on its hostile neighbor for its key materials.
It remains to be seen how Trump will respond to China’s long-standing desire to invade and annex Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province. He signaled a potential reduction in U.S. military support for Taiwan, describing in this context, the United States is seen as an “insurance company”, and there are widespread concerns that it may treat Taiwan as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with China. Again, if Taiwan were part of China, it would completely reshape the chip industry.
Meanwhile, Trump has ridiculed Biden’s CHIPS Act, which provides strong incentives for chipmakers to set up shop on American soil, is “so bad.” He explained last week that he finds tariffs preferable as a way to counter China – although importers rather than exporters must pay tariffs, so it is unclear how Trump’s policy will achieve its stated goal.
Social media and privacy
Still on the subject of China, Trump changed his mind on banning TikTok, which he favored during his first term. Earlier this year, after the meeting along with Republican megadonor and TikTok investor Jeff Yass, he spoke out against a bipartisan initiative backed by Biden to force China’s ByteDance to sell TikTok or see it banned in the United States. This bill still passed, and time is now running out for ByteDance, but Trump -WHO joined TikTok in June – this could change that.
Trump also attempted to overturn parts of a key law known as Section 230 during his first term, although Biden reversed his executive order on the subject. Section 230 of the Communications Law grants social media companies immunity for the content posted by their users and how they moderate that content. As such, it is considered essential by Silicon Valley, but Republican lawmakers have targeted it to protect social platforms when they remove right-wing misinformation and hate speech.
The technology industry was nervous about what Trump, who now has his own social network in the form of Truth Social, might do about Section 230 the second time around. They will find out soon.
At the same time, social media companies should also keep an eye on how the Trump administration’s conduct affects their ability to easily serve users in Europe. Fortunately for them, EU privacy watchdogs yesterday published a report approving how the United States implemented a data sharing agreement called the Data Privacy Framework – the third agreement of its kindafter the EU’s highest court overturned the previous two due to American intelligence services’ access to European data held by the United States.
But watchdogs will review it again in a few years, and the deal is done. always likely faces its own legal challenge in Europe, so any misuse of U.S. intelligence agencies’ data reserves by the Trump administration would jeopardize the framework’s survival.
