There have been several stories about workers are effectively replaced by generative AI. In May 2023, AI would have taken the jobs of 3,900 people in the United States.
A study from OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania found that “around 80% of the US workforce could see at least 10% of their tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs,” LLMs being extended language models like OpenAI’s GPT.
Goldman Sachs Research suggests that 300 million jobs could be affected by these tools, but they could also increase global GDP by 7% over time.
There are two important caveats here:
Firstly, current AI is not yet AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), so we must be careful not to exaggerate its capabilities. This is not the superintelligent artificial brain that some believe. It’s “just” a very powerful type of software who has been trained on much of all publicly available knowledge.
Second, even if some jobs are replaced by AI, many are positively affected by it, and even more will be created because of it.
The major linguistic models (LLM) are essentially probabilistic prediction software. They are trained to identify patterns in huge amounts of data, which allows them to answer questions and follow instructions. Whether the answers are correct or not is a function of probability and can be judged by humans and separate models. Improving a model requires a new round of training with updated data and user feedback.
The result of all this is a program that you can talk to and that will predict the most likely answer to your question. This is most of what you need to know, although there is obviously much more to how LLMs work. After all, GPT4, the most powerful LLM to dateis “the most complex software that humanity has probably produced,” as applied AI describes it. OpenAI expert.
This program is powerful and fascinating, but limited. He can’t yet be a world-class technology journalist, like the backlash against CNET’s AI content showed. This lies too much to be useful to lawyers, as we discovered after ChatGPT added fake quotes and opinions to his legal file. It’s not smart enough to replace human consultants on a helpline for people with eating disorders.
Its construction requires large amounts of data and computing power. Despite all the refinements and optimizations, due to the probabilistic nature of these models, we hallucinate things that are not true. Especially in use cases that require precision and deterministic logic, like math and physics, or citing true sources. It cannot handle novelty, empathize with human experience, or interact with the physical world the way we can.
Just as translation software has not eliminated the need for human translators, it new software won’t remove the need for human knowledge workers. But it will augment us, make us much faster, and allow us to focus on what humans do best: creating new tools, thinking critically, dreaming up bold ideas, making tough decisions, improving the world around us. surround and care for other humans.
History proves that the economy can adapt to any increase in productivity, regardless of its magnitude. We will use the enormous efficiency gain brought by LLMs (and the technologies that follow) to create new types of products, services, and entire industries that will generate jobs for humans.
The invention of electricity made life easier with basic comforts like artificial lighting, air conditioning, and useful household appliances. These were all luxuries in the past, but now they are the norm. They have become table stakes in our lives, and generative AI is about to join them. In a few years, technologies that are not enhanced by AI will seem obsolete and useless. We humans are very good at hoping for a better quality of life whenever possible.
After ChatGPT was released, many people predicted that it would swallow up Google’s search business. It’s been a while, and now we have Bing chat search, Google is about to release a genAI-based search experience, and there are third-party AI search engines like Perplexity. There was a bit of hype, but it failed because among the many uses of LLMs, disrupting research is disappointing.
This shows that no one can really predict the consequences of revolutionary technology. Which is comforting considering the pessimists who have spoken out against further development of AI.
There was the famous open letter to suspend AI developmentsigned by more than 1,000 influencers, including Steve Wozniak and Elon Musk. It was criticized for being vague and appearing like an attempt to stifle OpenAI’s growth potential in order to allow others to catch up. More recently, a nonprofit called the Center for AI Safety released a statement warning of the many dangers of AI.
AI should both provide the most individual economic empowerment ever and ensure that no one is forced to work if they don’t want to.
– Sam Altman (@sama) December 16, 2022
It’s fine to discuss the negative side of things, but the companies building these systems seem to have things under control. For probably the first time in history, when it comes to innovative technologies, they are preemptively asking governments to quickly implement AI regulations. They help define policies and best practices for AI security.
Meanwhile, legions of smart people around the world are hard at work trying to maximize the usefulness of AI in important and exciting areas, such as:
We face climate change, geopolitical volatility, societal divisions and economic stagnation. We need more productivity and more intellectual power to meet these challenges. Here, AI tools will help us the most.
To speed up or not to speed up?
Bad actors will use AI tools for bad purposes, but that’s the case with every technological advancement. Instead of putting development on hold, we should focus on education and prevention.
Even if the current generation of AI tools ends up having a disappointing impact on the world, the next generation will make up for it. So for business and government leaders, as well as any knowledge worker, the question is not “should I start using AI?”
The only question is “why don’t you use it yet?!”
