By early 2023, there were some 200 AI-based agricultural startups in the United States alone, and the global market for their solutions is vast. expected to almost triple by 2028. The numbers speak for themselves and experts are unanimous: with the world’s population expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, the digitalization of agriculture can significantly contribute to both feed the world and produce more sustainably. However, reducing agricultural costs and environmental footprint is just the tip of the iceberg: regions like the Croatian county of Dubrovnik-Neretva are also banking on them to strengthen their attractiveness and fight against depopulation. Yield forecasting, farmland value assessment and income estimation are among the benefits promised by some apps tailored to local farmers in the country. dRural, an EU-funded project aimed at reviving European rural areas. “Technology is the way forward. If we miss this opportunity, we will remain stuck in the past,” recognize its local leaders. However, as the recent EU study highlights “Artificial intelligence in the agri-food sector – Applications, risks and impacts, we must not neglect concerns such as the societal responsibility to “leave no one behind” and the risk of concentration of power in the hands of big business.. Josse De Baerdemaeker, Belgian professor emeritus University of Leuvenis among its authors.
What will agriculture look like in the age of artificial intelligence?
Agriculture will be transformed, that’s for sure. Artificial intelligence combined with other technological tools like robotics will likely bring more efficiency. This will allow us to adapt crop management, such as fertilizers or pest and disease control, based on the high variability of field needs, and to make other types of optimizations that would otherwise escape our control. eyes.
However, it is impossible, when thinking about artificial intelligence, not to fear futuristic scenarios where machines will replace humans…
Farmers will not disappear. They will still be in the fields but will likely work differently: they will spend more time on their computer screens interpreting images and signals about what is happening on their land. For example, artificial intelligence can help farmers plan their harvests and optimize their production; thanks to it, they can select the most suitable varieties and better adjust the quantities and delivery times of inputs such as fertilizers or mechanical operations in the field.
What role will then remain for farmers?
We should train farmers to work with and not for artificial intelligence, to take advantage of it instead of just blindly following its prescriptions. It shouldn’t just be a matter of sending a photo of their crops to a central crop advisory service and expecting in return instructions on how to set up their machines. Who will be responsible, for example, if something goes wrong and crops are damaged?
Transparency and understanding will be crucial to avoid such situations. How can we be sure that users of artificial intelligence understand and correctly question its recommendations?
These algorithms rely on a huge amount of data and can turn into black boxes, providing solutions that farmers just have to accept and execute. The question is: will they have to follow the algorithm blindly, or will they be able to follow its reasoning? Whether in terms of crop treatment, crop selection or otherwise, if the algorithm could explain its suggestions, farmers would be aware of the consequences of their actions and know what would or would not happen. And it would also give them more confidence in using AI agronomic services.
Such solutions require significant investments, which may not be affordable for small farmers. Will the AI revolution be for everyone?
Until now, European agriculture has largely been characterized by a large number of small farms, but its structure could also be affected. It will all depend on who can afford the technology. Farmers’ organizations, national governments and European policies must ensure that there is a coordinated effort to leave no one behind. In the study we worked on for the European Parliament, we highlighted, for example, that more needs to be done to educate and train farmers. Avoiding the digital divide would not only make the use of this technology more efficient, but also give small farmers equal opportunities that would otherwise only be available to large companies.
Yet, as data is power, this will affect the balance of power…
Another thing we need to pay attention to is how artificial intelligence will be used by intermediaries, such as distributors and retailers. The challenge is to preserve the freedom of choice of consumers and farmers and to ensure that the latter continue to operate independently. We should avoid getting to the point where farmers become nothing more than employees of retailers. Will they end up governing how farmers produce and forcing them to produce what they know consumers want? And does this mean that one day we will only have one variety of apples or cereals, to the detriment of biodiversity?
Technology is advancing so quickly that governments and society seem to be falling behind. Is artificial intelligence evolving too quickly?
As with any new product, many people are trying to make artificial intelligence in agriculture a business. Competition is intensifying and we have to act quickly, but we can wonder if things are not happening too quickly and if all concerns are being taken into account. Governments or farmers’ organizations can request transparency on the models used and that they be accompanied by documentation understandable to users. As for medicines, AI-based solutions must be accompanied by information clearly explaining what they are used for, but also what to watch out for.
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