Steve Durbin is CEO of Information Security Forum. He frequently speaks on the Council’s role in cybersecurity and technology.
In recent years, there have been dramatic changes in the way businesses operate, in the way countries cooperate, in the way people work, and in the level of technological automation introduced across all sectors. At the intersection of these rapid innovations and increased international instability, new risks are emerging. Let’s understand some of the key risks that organizations need to prepare for.
1. Impact of geopolitics on supply chains
The situation in Ukraine was a wake-up call for many business leaders. Before the conflict, some leaders acted as if nothing had happened. This is an overly simplistic example, but supply chains were disturbed lack of emergency plan.
Everything from chips to electricity, cell phones to cars have been impacted. Few have fully grasped the mineral resources siphoned from Ukraine. For the same reasoning, we do not know what goes into making a smartphone. Where do the different components come from? We don’t think about which components might be missing. We just want our phone to work perfectly.
2. Growing security risks following AI applications
Many use cases for generative AI have not yet been revealed. For example, if we look at the development of the future Smart cities, they will likely depend on AI to operate effectively. Predicting air quality, electricity and water supply consumption, anticipating traffic congestion, and addressing the need for more transportation options all help make businesses sustainable.
However, the involvement of AI can pose a huge risk to companies and businesses, as the quality of AI systems depends on the quality of the data they are trained on; the traditional elements of security, confidentiality, integrity and availability should apply here. A major issue is data integrity. How do you know if AI data inputs have been tampered with? Unlike humans who question data, machines blindly trust data and manufacture masses of information that other humans and machines can act on.
From a security and governance perspective, companies will now have to take on significant responsibilities.
3. Environmental challenges posed by quantum computing
Quantum computing is similar to AI because of its powerful ability to reduce energy and time requirements. Although the technology has not yet reached maturity, it will process information at a much lower speed than today. This will likely prove revolutionary when you consider the significant implications for energy consumption and cybersecurity. Quantum will require immense computing power, consuming large amounts of energy and generating a significant degree of heat.
As organizations strive to innovate without limits, we simply cannot divorce the laws of nature from the consequences these things will have on them. The debate over quantum computing is similar to that Electric car debate; sure, electric cars reduce emissions, but what about the downstream pollutants produced by these charging stations or the minerals mined to create rechargeable batteries? Business leaders need to analyze these ramifications more thoroughly and comprehensively to know their potential impacts on the business.
4. Societal risks linked to disruptive technologies
AI innovators have repeatedly warned about how AI poses a “risk of extinction”, arguing that AI must be managed alongside societal-scale risks such as the Covid-19 pandemic or nuclear war. AI will eventually become so powerful that it could potentially eliminate millions of white-collar jobs, creating disruption on a societal scale. The fact is that we honestly don’t know what kind of AI the future will bring about.
A look at how technology has changed society over the years shows the creation of unforeseen careers and unimaginable wealth. It is undeniable that millions of existing jobs will be replaced by new ones or will cease to exist.
The challenge for businesses and governments is how to manage this transition. How can we better equip people to face a future that we have no confidence in controlling? This means we need to equip employees and young minds with skills related to agility, flexibility and creative thinking – more adaptive skills.
5. The growing struggle to align technological and regulatory changes
The growing number of regulations, such as GDPRTHE European AI law, DORA and NIS2among other things, impose a significant burden on businesses, particularly those that operate across multiple geographies and are subject to varying degrees of regulatory requirements.
This challenge becomes even more daunting in countries like the United States, where state variations further complicate compliance efforts. Small businesses struggle to dedicate the time and resources necessary to adapt to so many diverse and cross-border regulations. As a result, they face increased risks and their non-compliance can have a knock-on effect on larger organizations that play a role in their supply chain.
I think governments need to recognize these realities and work together to find effective solutions. Balancing regulatory compliance with the ability of businesses, particularly small ones, to manage such a complex regulatory environment is crucial. Only through collaborative efforts and realistic approaches can we ensure smooth alignment with technological and regulatory changes.
It’s time to be open-minded and ready to embrace change
It is essential that organizations learn and listen, demonstrate courage for change, and seek input and ideas from a wide range of perspectives. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to succeed on this path.
Moving forward, I think an ideal approach would be to foster relationships with independent think tanks comprised of authorities in areas such as AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity. This independent, apolitical perspective can provide businesses with valuable insights they might not otherwise consider.
This collaborative approach will help enable a deeper understanding of the risks associated with disruptive technologies, the development of timely strategies and policies that can address current risks; but it also requires biannual or quarterly collaborations to keep pace with rapid societal changes and evolving threat vectors.
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