Editor’s Note: Today we published a report from the first Visiting Scholar in Technology and Society. Andrew McAfee on the potential economic impacts of generative AI. This report is the result of McAfee’s original research on AI and the economy, conducted in close collaboration with experts at Google to focus on the impact of the recent rise of generative AI on productivity, labor markets and the skills workers need to succeed in an AI-powered environment. economy.
Read on to view Andrew McAfee’s presentation or download the full report.
Generative AI is one of the few technologies powerful enough to accelerate overall economic growth – what economists call “general-purpose technology.” These innovations have the potential to positively transform economies and societies.
By a estimatenearly 80% of jobs in the US economy could have at least 10% of their tasks performed twice as quickly (without loss of quality) through the use of generative AI.
Previous general-purpose technologies, such as the steam engine and electrification, have made their changes over the decades. However, we anticipate that the effects of generative AI will be felt more quickly due to its ability to spread quickly over the Internet and its ease of use through its natural language interface.
This technology is already generating significant productivity gains, which will increase and spread as individuals and organizations come up with complementary innovations leveraging the capabilities of generative AI. As a result, overall productivity will improve, leading to faster economic growth.
In addition to faster growth, generative AI will bring other changes. This will reduce demand for some skills, increase demand for others, and create demand for entirely new skills.
Fears of large-scale technological unemployment are probably exaggerated. The history of general-purpose technologies shows that the growth they generate is accompanied by a strong demand for labor.
However, this increased demand often concerns new professions. For example, more than 85% of total employment growth in the United States since 1940 has come from entirely new sources. professions.
The rapid changes brought about by the diffusion of generative AI will require rapid and effective reskilling efforts. These efforts may rely on generative AI itself, a tool with the unique ability to help people use it better. And because generative AI accumulates knowledge and makes it available on demand, it is particularly effective in improving the performance of entry-level employees, helping to reduce pay inequality.
Previous general-purpose technologies have driven changes in companies and countries that are leading the way in different industries. We believe generative AI will be just as powerful.
